Summary:
In this episode, we dive deep into the current real estate marketplace in Portland Metro and discuss whether it's the right time for homebuyers to make a move. We analyze available homes, home prices, and interest rates to help you understand the market dynamics. Discover who this market is ideal for and who might be best off waiting. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or looking to move up or downsize, we provide valuable insights and strategies to help you make an informed decision. Don't miss this opportunity to gain a competitive edge in the real estate market.
Episode Highlights:
Insights into Market Inventory: We take a close look at the current state of available homes, often referred to as inventory. Despite a seemingly positive 2.9% increase in months of available inventory, a deeper dive reveals that new listings on the market have taken a surprising 7% dip from the previous month. This translates to a reduction in buyer traffic and prolonged selling times for available homes.
Crunching the Numbers on Home Prices: The median sale price has witnessed a subtle 0.3% increase compared to the previous month. While it might seem like a minor shift, it's important to note that the median price has moved from $540k at this time last year to $531k. However, this minimal change must be considered in the context of the evolving interest rates.
Navigating Interest Rates: Let's delve into the world of interest rates. Currently, a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stands at approximately 8.4%, while an FHA 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is set at 7.5%. These rates have surged significantly when compared to rates from 12 to 24 months ago, leading to a notable decrease in purchasing power by around 30-40%.
Best People for This Market: We'll explore which homebuyers stand to benefit the most in this market. If you're a homeowner with substantial equity aiming to upgrade or downsize and you're not overly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, this market could be your oyster. Moreover, those with specific neighborhood preferences can leverage this opportunity, thanks to favorable prices and decreased competition. If multi-family or multi-generational housing is your focus, the market is teeming with options and improved financing choices.
Caution on the Sidelines: On the other hand, it's wise for certain buyers to consider a temporary pause. First-time homebuyers with down payments of 5% or less should proceed with caution as this could potentially strain their debt-to-income ratios. Likewise, if your heart is set on a particular price range and the current interest rates are a tight squeeze, a bit of patience and strategy reevaluation might be in order.
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00:00:06:23 - 00:00:24:23
Joe
Welcome to off the record Talking real estate with Joe and Makayla. If you're interested in the Portland, Oregon real estate market and want the unvarnished inside scoop, you've come to the right place. Thanks for giving us all this. Okay. Welcome, everyone, to our market update for buyers. Hi, Makayla. How are you? Hi.
00:00:24:23 - 00:00:27:07
Makayla
I'm so good. Nice to be here.
00:00:27:09 - 00:00:35:11
Joe
Yeah. Welcome to fall. Pumpkins everywhere. Football. I know it's the best, isn't it?
00:00:35:13 - 00:00:37:12
Makayla
Enjoyed the Duck game this weekend?
00:00:37:14 - 00:00:45:01
Joe
I did. Yeah. Didn't turn out the way we wanted, but great game. Lots of hype. Got to see your husband there, which is the highlight. It was wonderful.
00:00:45:02 - 00:00:46:17
Makayla
He is so excited.
00:00:46:19 - 00:00:54:11
Joe
Yeah. Good times. And we got a lot more football left, which is wonderful. I have to ask, are you a pumpkin spice girl?
00:00:54:14 - 00:00:55:19
Makayla
I am.
00:00:55:20 - 00:00:56:21
Joe
Really?
00:00:56:21 - 00:01:04:04
Makayla
Yeah. It's an addiction. Pumpkin cream, cold brew from Starbucks. Oh, my gosh. The best thing ever.
00:01:04:06 - 00:01:05:21
Joe
Is it like, super sweet or.
00:01:05:22 - 00:01:09:21
Makayla
No, it's Cold Brew with a little bit of cream on top.
00:01:10:02 - 00:01:12:22
Joe
Wow. How much is that? Like $5.50 or something?
00:01:12:22 - 00:01:15:11
Makayla
Like at $6.50
00:01:15:16 - 00:01:16:12
Joe
That's ridiculous.
00:01:16:18 - 00:01:18:01
Makayla
Are you a pumpkin Spice?
00:01:18:07 - 00:01:24:15
Joe
Negative. No, the pumpkin doesn't really turn me on much. I'm more of a sweet vanilla and Nespresso guy.
00:01:24:17 - 00:01:25:12
Makayla
Ooh.
00:01:25:14 - 00:01:26:17
Joe
Which is what we're having right now
00:01:26:17 - 00:01:27:13
Makayla
Cheers to that.
00:01:27:15 - 00:01:59:00
Joe
Year? Yeah, the afternoon going on the pod. Pick me up or so. Yeah. We digress. We are here to talk about what this marketplace, this current Portland Metro and national marketplace means for home buyers. We've got a lot of people out there that are wondering if now's the right time. We've actually done a pod on that recently. But also, you know, we thought we'd dive deeper into it and talk about available homes, home prices, interest rates.
00:01:59:00 - 00:02:16:07
Joe
Which home buyer is this market ideal for? Which will be interesting and then who might be best to stay on the sidelines for a while? Because this market's not for everyone. I think it's for more people than they think. But there's also some folks that this is probably a good time to sit out for a little while, don't you think?
00:02:16:09 - 00:02:32:18
Makayla
Yeah, I like the advice. I'm excited to hear what you have to say about that. And I think market updates are changing weekly. Maybe every two weeks, but it seems like every couple of weeks, every month or so, it's just a different story in the marketplace. So I think it's important that we're staying up to date with these.
00:02:32:18 - 00:02:34:11
Makayla
I find it helpful.
00:02:34:14 - 00:02:56:17
Joe
Yeah, absolutely. So let's talk about availability, because for a long time, for years and years and years, it's been an extremely low inventory environment and it's changed. I think the perception is, is that there's all these new homes on the market because we're seeing the slowdown in the marketplace and that was kind of my perception until just a little while ago as well.
00:02:56:17 - 00:03:14:16
Joe
But I want to run some numbers by and see what you think. So this month's available inventory increase at 2.9 months of inventory. And remember, months of inventory is if we start putting homes on the market right now at the current rate of sales, how many months would it take to sell off all of the inventory? And right now that's 2.9.
00:03:14:17 - 00:03:37:06
Joe
Okay. Right. So a lot of people would think, okay, we were in 0.9 territory, 1.3 months of inventory, and now we're up to 2.9. And that must mean that there's all these new homes on the market. Not necessarily the case. It's a little bit deceiving because New listings on the market were actually down over 7% from last month.
00:03:37:09 - 00:03:46:02
Joe
So the inventory number went up. But the actual new listings on the market in MLS went down 7%. Isn't that crazy?
00:03:46:03 - 00:03:46:23
Makayla
And it's crazy.
00:03:47:01 - 00:03:49:06
Joe
So that seems to be in conflict with each other, right?
00:03:49:06 - 00:03:49:19
Makayla
Yeah.
00:03:49:21 - 00:04:10:08
Joe
So I think what that tells us is there are significant less buyer traffic out there in the marketplace right now and that there are less new homes on the market and those that are on are selling much slower. So instead of that fast paced market that we've been used to, it's a lot slower right now and there's pros and cons to both of those.
00:04:10:08 - 00:04:27:12
Joe
So, I mean, if you're working with a buyer right now and they're used to having to make these quick decisions and go run the houses and all that, you know, you still may want to get there sooner than later. But at the same time, our days on market was up four days as well, up and into the forties now, which is highly unusual.
00:04:27:12 - 00:04:27:20
Joe
Right.
00:04:27:22 - 00:04:29:13
Makayla
That was shocking to see.
00:04:29:16 - 00:04:40:04
Joe
Mm hmm. So I think the take away from available homes also called inventory is that there's almost the same number of homes on the market. They're just selling slower.
00:04:40:06 - 00:04:41:19
Makayla
Right. Got it. Okay.
00:04:41:21 - 00:04:56:14
Joe
Which also means that there's some opportunity for buyers and a lot of cases. You're not going to have to make full price offers. Right. Of the homes. Been on the market for five, six weeks or more. Chances are you'll probably be able to get in under list price, which isn't that crazy?
00:04:56:15 - 00:05:08:13
Makayla
It's amazing. I'm excited for buyers. I feel like we need to get the word out because there's just so much confusion going on right now. And I think if more people were to take a look at what's actually happening, there might be some opportunity for them.
00:05:08:16 - 00:05:36:07
Joe
Yeah. Yeah, for sure. So let's talk about prices real quick. Median sale price increased by 0.3% over last month, so basically stayed about the same. Median price, remember, is different than average price. We like median because if you took a line of all of the homes and what their sale price was, if you went to the exact middle of that number, if 120 homes sold, if you went to number 60 and 61, what were the prices on that?
00:05:36:07 - 00:05:57:18
Joe
That's the median, which I think is better than the average, because if you had a $20 million home at the top and everything, it's going to skew that a little bit. So what's the median price? And the price went from $540k at this time last year, which is a crazy number, being at $540,000. That's the very middle of the road for home sales right now.
00:05:57:19 - 00:06:21:09
Joe
It's at $531,000. Okay. So not a huge drop. In fact, not as much as I would have thought, seeing where a lot of the price reductions have gone recently. That number is sure to probably drop as well, just seeing where the market's at right now. So not a significant amount considering the change in interest rates, which we'll talk about here in a second.
00:06:21:11 - 00:06:24:06
Joe
Does that surprise you at all that it's only gone down $9000?
00:06:24:10 - 00:06:43:02
Makayla
Not for as much as everyone's freaking out about it. Yeah. No. Yeah. I think it should be encouraging to buyers and it is good that we're kind of seeing things drop or level off as people like to say. But what's interesting is the difference in monthly payment at those two purchase prices. And we're very happy about that. Very minimal.
00:06:43:03 - 00:06:50:05
Makayla
Yeah, Yeah. I mean, it's still good, right? Maybe $50, but you're not seeing hundreds of dollars of difference in those two prices.
00:06:50:05 - 00:07:21:05
Joe
But. Right. The difference in sale price versus the difference in mortgage payment because of the interest rates, they're not equal. Hmm. Yeah. So,let's talk about interest rates real quick. Conventional 30 year fixed will run you about 8.4% right now. I know. Yeah. And you know, the markets vary on a day to day basis. When you listen to this listener, it may be below eight and things are fluctuating quite a bit.
00:07:21:05 - 00:07:54:20
Joe
So if you're in the marketplace, find out from your trusted lender who you have a relationship with to figure out where you fall. Because that 8.4 is a very general number, right? FHA 30 year fixed is at 7.5%, which is a lot better if we just got one little piece of good news from the Fed, I think you would see conventional down in the middle sevens and FHA down below seven which I think would be great for our housing market right now.
00:07:55:00 - 00:08:22:21
Makayla
Yeah absolutely. But to tack on to that, I think all the different buy down opportunities that are happening right now, which I'm sure we're going to get into. But since sellers, you know, might be getting a little nervous about the fact that their homes aren't selling, they're more willing to help you pay down the interest rate. And what that means is say you're looking at a 7.5% interest rate, You could potentially ask the seller to buy it down for you to as much as 6.5%.
00:08:23:01 - 00:08:27:18
Makayla
Which would make all the difference. And yeah, it would be pretty spendy to do, but it's possible.
00:08:27:21 - 00:08:48:20
Joe
Most in most cases the seller is going to pay that cost too. So for example, on a $475,000 home, a 2-1 buy down, meaning two years are bought down in the first year you can get a 6.5%, 6.25%, 6.5% interest rate. The first year over year loan seven and a quarter the second year.
00:08:48:20 - 00:09:18:23
Joe
And then maybe the going rate seven, seven, five or 8% thereafter. And hopefully within two or three years you can refinance it. Right. But that makes such a huge difference that two points that the seller is willing to buy that down for the home seller if they're paying for that at closing for the buyer, it's about ten or $11,000 right now, which there are a lot of sellers out there that would be more than willing to pay that to get their home sold right now because of how thing how slow things are, don't you think?
00:09:19:00 - 00:09:37:12
Makayla
Yeah, absolutely. And even if it is a hot property, because those do still exist right now, believe it or not. But if you're worried about, you know, asking for that and not getting your offer accepted, there's a lot of strategies that we can encourage you to do to kind of offset that. It's not as cut and dry as we just made it seem, but that's a whole another podcast.
00:09:37:12 - 00:09:57:11
Joe
And that is a whole another part. And the reason that I know those numbers so well is that we just sold the home, right? They know they didn't have to look at my notes and it's like, Well, we just sold one of our properties that we're representing at that price point at $475k with that $10,000 credit to help the buyer.
00:09:57:13 - 00:10:26:19
Joe
Got it. Yeah. So, you know, if you're listening and you're thinking about selling your home, that's one of those strategies that you should be considering if your home's currently on the market and not selling. And also something to explore before you get on the market just in case it doesn't sell. The other thing that we're finding when we talk about median home prices probably going down more is there's still a segment of sellers that are pricing their homes with the thought of this being a market that was a year or two ago, don't you think?
00:10:26:20 - 00:10:27:19
Makayla
Oh, absolutely.
00:10:27:20 - 00:10:47:10
Joe
I mean, I look, we both look at homes that come on the market every single day and look at tons and tons of homes. And I'm still amazed at how many homes I look at and say that's 5%, 10% over where they should be. And the whole testing the market to see if you can get it. Yeah, that's not a good strategy right now.
00:10:47:10 - 00:10:49:12
Makayla
No, but it's good for buyers.
00:10:49:14 - 00:11:07:23
Joe
It's great for buyers because those homes then stay on the market. They make an adjustment and then they have to go even below where they probably should have been starting. Great for a buyer. Not a great scenario for a seller, right? So when we look at where interest rates were at 12 to 24 months ago, there's an affordability issue there, Right?
00:11:07:23 - 00:11:39:01
Joe
Because rates at 4-4.5, 5% versus 8-8.5%. Right now that translates to about 35, 40% less home that you can buy. So if we're talking about our median sale price being $530,000 right now, we'll use that as the example. Two years ago, you could have let's say you could afford that $530,000 home with your same income to debt ratios and the rest of what goes into being pre-approved.
00:11:39:03 - 00:12:06:07
Joe
You can only afford 35 or 40% less than that now, which drops it down to $345,000 each. Yeah, that's a tough pill to swallow. Yeah, that in a nutshell is why I think our market has slowed so significantly, is because there's all these people that were looking at $530,000-$550,000 homes that now look at their revised what they can afford.
00:12:06:07 - 00:12:09:18
Joe
And it's a much different home in a much different neighborhood, Right?
00:12:09:19 - 00:12:20:00
Makayla
Yeah. That's so hard when you get your mind set on what you can afford. And you've been waiting and refreshing Zillow and doing all the things that you're supposed to do and then bam, it just hits you.
00:12:20:00 - 00:12:21:02
Joe
But yeah.
00:12:21:04 - 00:12:22:19
Makayla
Doesn't mean that it's impossible.
00:12:22:23 - 00:12:49:09
Joe
Yeah. So we'll talk about more of those type of strategies and different things in some of our next podcast, but we want to finish with which home buyer is this market ideal for and who might be best to stay on the sidelines for a while. So let's start with who this is ideal for. Right. So my first one is anyone who has significant equity in their current home is probably not going to be that rate sensitive.
00:12:49:09 - 00:13:11:00
Joe
Right? So if you're buying that $530,000 home, but you're selling a $400,000 home that you have $100,000 equity in, that's going to be much less that 8.5% or 8% or 7-7.5% or wherever the rate ends up for you is going to be much less painful than if you were just doing a 5% down, right, $25,000 or something like that.
00:13:11:02 - 00:13:29:07
Joe
So if you've got a lot of equity in your home or you've got a lot of savings towards your home purchase, it's still a pretty good time to buy. You can be what they call less rate sensitive in that scenario. And I mean, I think there's a lot of those people out there. I saw a statistic and this is just off the top of my head.
00:13:29:07 - 00:13:39:13
Joe
So listener beware. This is maybe not 100% accurate, but I saw where in the United States over 40% of the people have their home paid off.
00:13:39:15 - 00:13:40:04
Makayla
Really?
00:13:40:07 - 00:13:43:12
Joe
Yeah, I think it was 35 to 40%, maybe more.
00:13:43:17 - 00:13:46:17
Makayla
We should look that up. Fact check that, because if that's true, let's.
00:13:46:20 - 00:14:14:19
Joe
Go to LivPortland.com and click on podcast and we'll have a page set up where we can look at what that number actually is. And we'll have all the information that we've been talking about on there as well. But with, you know, if you had your home paid off, imagine if you wanted to move from a $400,000 home, $500,000 home to $600k and only have $100,000to $200,000 mortgage, that's a pretty good scenario and maybe doesn't scare you as much with the interest rates being where they are right now.
00:14:14:20 - 00:14:16:04
Makayla
Yeah, that's a really good point.
00:14:16:06 - 00:14:33:23
Joe
Yeah. So move up buyers and downsizing buyers. If you've got a lot of equity or you own your home outright, now is a great time to buy. There's more opportunities, it's less competitive. You might even get to get a deal. And in the neighborhood or the area that you're looking for, don't you think?
00:14:33:23 - 00:14:35:03
Makayla
Yeah, absolutely.
00:14:35:07 - 00:14:35:21
Joe
Who else, Makayla?
00:14:35:21 - 00:14:51:10
Makayla
People who are looking to be in a certain area or neighborhood. There's certain neighborhoods in Portland where prices aren't as high as they were, you know, in the past couple of years. So if you're looking to be in a certain pocket, it could be a good opportunity for you, too.
00:14:51:15 - 00:15:11:18
Joe
Yeah. And we I think one of our last podcasts, we talked about the different areas in Portland that have been hit the hardest with reductions in home values and might be a good one to look up on our page of LivPortland.com. But there are areas if you're looking for a certain area like the University of Portland area is one that comes to mind for me.
00:15:11:18 - 00:15:30:11
Joe
If you're looking to be in that area, those home prices have come down substantially more than the average in town and you might be able to get a deal on that and get something well below what you thought you might be able to get into. So great opportunities price wise. Also less competition because of the lower demand for buyers out there.
00:15:30:16 - 00:15:36:07
Joe
So that's one. I also think buyers who are interested in multifamily or multi-generational housing, don't you think?
00:15:36:10 - 00:15:44:21
Makayla
Yes. Refer to our next episode because that's what we're going to be talking about. I'm really excited for the opportunities there.
00:15:45:01 - 00:15:53:06
Joe
MultiFamily and multigenerational. I love it. And the government is actually doing some things to make that easier for people to accomplish, aren't they?
00:15:53:08 - 00:15:59:19
Makayla
They are. So for the first time, we're seeing 5% down payment opportunities on multifamily.
00:16:00:00 - 00:16:03:02
Joe
It used to be 10%, right, for the federally funded.
00:16:03:02 - 00:16:09:23
Makayla
15 to 25%. Yeah. So for Triplexes, it was sometimes as high as 25%.
00:16:09:23 - 00:16:11:06
Joe
Don't give away the whole pod.
00:16:11:06 - 00:16:13:11
Makayla
Sorry I'm so excited about living play.
00:16:13:12 - 00:16:14:12
Joe
I can tell.
00:16:14:13 - 00:16:15:18
Makayla
So many great opportunities.
00:16:15:20 - 00:16:26:01
Joe
So. And we're actually seeing more inventory in that multi family. 21 and 22. There was I can remember there was nothing you and I talked about that so many times because.
00:16:26:01 - 00:16:28:03
Makayla
I wanted one around that time.
00:16:28:08 - 00:16:39:21
Joe
Yeah. So you'll have to tune in to that podcast to hear more about that. But that's a great a great way to go right now. So let's talk about who might be best to stay on the sidelines for a little while.
00:16:39:23 - 00:16:41:03
Makayla
I love the honesty here.
00:16:41:06 - 00:17:03:05
Joe
And yeah, we need to have people representing you and giving you advice that are going to give you the straight scoop. And we always promise to do that at LivPortland. And you and I have always told our clients that we're going to tell you what you need to know, not what you want to know. And this might be one of those situations where if you're a first time homebuyer and you have less than 5%, you've got to be really careful.
00:17:03:06 - 00:17:30:06
Joe
You know, the debt to income ratios that your lender talks about, there's a difference between what you can afford and what you really want. And if you get into this situation where you've got 3% down or maybe a VA with no money down and you're stretching the limits of your debt to income ratios, you can get house poor and really upside down really quickly, especially with there being some uncertainty in our marketplace, in our economy.
00:17:30:06 - 00:17:32:12
Joe
I would just caution, don't you think?
00:17:32:12 - 00:17:47:04
Makayla
Yeah, I agree. Yeah, that's hard to tell people because if they're so excited, yeah, that's a hard reality to face. But I think you'll thank yourself later when you have even, you know, maybe a little more in savings and you can be even more comfortable when those interest rates do come down a little bit.
00:17:47:06 - 00:18:06:00
Joe
With that being said, I would not be afraid to go and talk to your trusted mortgage broker to find out where you stand because it doesn't cost anything. It's not going to do anything to your credit report. If you are wanting to get into a home, you definitely should talk to those professionals and your realtor, for that matter.
00:18:06:05 - 00:18:27:18
Joe
But just a warning. Don't get yourself into a position where, yeah, we can get you approved for that. And then it's really super difficult. So that's one. And then anyone who is wanting to buy in a certain price range but are really hard pressed to make it work with current rates, if you're trying to get into a certain area or a certain neighborhood and you're really stretching yourself to do that.
00:18:27:18 - 00:18:40:17
Joe
And this goes along the lines of what we just mentioned. Just take some caution with that. This might not be a time to be throwing it all in to put down a little money just to get into a certain area, certain neighborhood. Be careful there.
00:18:40:19 - 00:19:00:22
Makayla
Yeah, I agree. And maybe that's that same group that we're talking about. You know, maybe you only buy if the seller can spend an extra ten or 15,000 on you and buy down the rate. A couple of points. One point would be ideal, at least for you. So, you know, maybe you're on the hunt a little bit or you're kind of looking just making sure you're aware of what's out there.
00:19:00:22 - 00:19:05:19
Makayla
And if a good opportunity comes along, then you can jump on it. But don't be in a rush.
00:19:05:21 - 00:19:23:11
Joe
There's a real good chance that if you waited until spring, if you waited that four or five months time saved a little bit more money, had a little bit more down, you know, paid off more debt, you're going to be in the same situation as now. It's not going to be some crazy frenzied market again in the spring.
00:19:23:11 - 00:19:45:01
Joe
It'll probably be more competitive in the spring. And that tends to happen just because of the seasonality. But just be careful with with your finances around that and if you need a little bit more time, take that amount of time. But for those that are this market's ideal for find out what what you can do and go to our website LivPortland.com.
00:19:45:01 - 00:19:53:08
Joe
We're going to have a lot of great resources for you there Talk to your trusted mortgage professional and meet up with your real estate broker to really find out what's going on.
00:19:53:13 - 00:19:54:15
Makayla
Great. Good info.
00:19:54:21 - 00:20:08:17
Joe
I hope this was helpful. Anything more to add to that? Homebuyers. It's a tough situation right now, but like any time there's pros and cons, there's opportunities. It's just a matter of getting information, don't you think?
00:20:08:18 - 00:20:21:05
Makayla
Yeah, I think that's well said. I think the best thing you can do is if you're on the fence about it, just talk to the people in your life that you trust, the professionals that you trust and pencil it out. The worst thing that's going to happen is you make a plan for the future.
00:20:21:07 - 00:20:25:12
Joe
So the worst thing that happens is you make an uneducated decision to offer.
00:20:25:18 - 00:20:26:06
Makayla
I love that
00:20:26:09 - 00:20:34:23
Joe
Right? I wish I would made more of those when I was younger.
00:20:35:01 - 00:20:35:14
Makayla
Okay.
00:20:35:18 - 00:20:47:08
Joe
All right. All right. Well, thanks for everyone for joining. That is our market update for homebuyers. Feel free to visit LivPortland.com for more information. And we'll see you next time. Bye, Makayla.
00:20:47:08 - 00:21:01:19
Makayla
Bye. Thank you. Thanks for joining us today. If you're interested in finding out more about Joe, myself or the live Portland team, you can go to LivPortland.com. Thanks for giving us a listen and see you next time on the off the record podcast.
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